U.S. Bank | Best Time To Refinance (2024)

Choosing the best time to refinance

Lenders set the interest rates for their own loan products based on a number of factors including the yield on a 10-year Treasury note, risk and consumer demand.

Interest rates can be relatively stable for extended periods, or they can rise quickly in response to bad economic news or world events that destabilize the financial environment. Choosing the right time to refinance could save you thousands of dollars in mortgage interest payments.

What is a baseline rate?

The average homeowner in the United States sells or refinances within the first 10 years of purchase. That’s why lenders use the yield on a 10-year Treasury note to set the baseline for current mortgage interest rates.

However, because mortgages are a riskier investment for a lender than purchasing a note guaranteed by the U.S. government, lenders add a percentage to the Treasury rate to account for the additional risk of a mortgage default.

This difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the mortgage interest rate is known as the mortgage spread, and it can vary depending on a variety of events.

How seasonality affects mortgage interest rates

Seasonality plays an important role in determining when to refinance. The winter holiday season is a traditionally slow time in the real estate market; homeowners want to relax and avoid having prospective buyers visit their homes. Therefore, the demand for mortgage money is less, so lenders lower the spread in order to attract new business. This can be a great time to refinance.

On the other hand, the summer is typically an active time for home purchases, so lenders can afford to increase the spread, which results in higher interest rates.

How economic and world events impact refinancing

Mortgage lenders are very sensitive to risk, and bad financial news may cause them to immediately increase the spread. Triggers include:

  • Sudden drop in the stock market’s S&P 500 index
  • Rise in unemployment numbers
  • Rise in inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index
  • Increase in the discount rate (the interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges member banks on borrowed money; these banks pass along the increased rate to borrowers in the form of a higher mortgage spread)

For more information about refinancing your mortgage loan,compare mortgage refinance optionswith us or contact one of our U.S. Bank mortgage loan officers.

U.S. Bank | Best Time To Refinance (2024)

FAQs

What is the best time to refinance? ›

For most borrowers, the ideal time to refinance is when market rates have fallen below the rate on their current loan. If you want to refinance now, calculate the break-even point so you'll know exactly how long it'll take to reap the savings.

Is now a good time to refinance in 2024? ›

You might want to consider refinancing your mortgage in 2024, especially if you got your mortgage in the last year and interest rates fall, or your specific circ*mstances call for a new loan.

What is the best scenario for refinancing? ›

One of the best reasons to refinance is to lower the interest rate on your existing loan. Historically, the rule of thumb is that refinancing is a good idea if you can reduce your interest rate by at least 2%. However, many lenders say 1% savings is enough of an incentive to refinance.

How many years should I wait to refinance? ›

Any time for a simple or rate-and-term refinance; after seven months for a streamlined refinance; after 12 months for a cash-out refinance (can vary by lender). You must have made on-time payments for the past six months; 12 months for a cash-out refinance.

What is the best date to close on a refinance? ›

If you do opt to refinance, consider doing it toward the end of the month. This will reduce your closing costs since you will only need to pre-pay interest for a couple of days.

How do I get the best rate for refinancing? ›

  1. Improve your credit score. ...
  2. Compare refinance rates. ...
  3. Buy points to lower your interest rate. ...
  4. Determine which loan term is best. ...
  5. Choose a fixed interest rate. ...
  6. Consider the loan amount. ...
  7. Pay closing costs upfront.
Mar 28, 2024

How low will mortgage rates drop in 2024? ›

Mortgage rate predictions 2024

The MBA's forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall into the 6.5% to 6.9% range throughout the rest of 2024, and NAR is predicting a similar trajectory. But Fannie Mae thinks rates could stay in the low 7% range this year.

Will refinance rates go down in 2025? ›

So, when will mortgage rates go down? Experts from Fannie Mae and the MBA predict a gradual decrease by the end of 2025. Forecasts indicate that 30-year mortgage rates, currently around 7.1%, might drop to 6.6% by the end of 2024, and further down to 5.9% by the end of 2025.

Will mortgage rates ever be 3 again? ›

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.

What is the best company to use for a refinance? ›

Our Top Picks for the Best Mortgage Refinance Lenders of June 2024
  • Ally Financial – Best for Jumbo Loans.
  • Bank of America – Best for Member Discounts.
  • Better – Best for Fast Closing Time.
  • loanDepot – Best for Online Mortgage Refinancing.
  • Nationwide – Best for Custom Loans.
  • Navy Federal Credit Union – Best Credit Union.
Jun 11, 2024

What not to do during refinance process? ›

Rushing in to the decision to refinance may not benefit your financial situation, so take time to avoid these eight mistakes.
  1. Failing to do your homework. ...
  2. Assuming you're getting the best deal. ...
  3. Failing to factor in all costs. ...
  4. Ignoring your credit score. ...
  5. Neglecting to determine your refinance breakeven point.
Oct 27, 2023

What is a good rule of thumb for refinancing? ›

It's a good rule to refinance if you can reduce your interest rate by at least 1%. Mortgage rates naturally rise and fall. But, when the economy struggles, mortgage rates usually fall. Just because interest rates are low, though, doesn't mean it's the best choice for you to refinance.

At what point is it not worth it to refinance? ›

Don't refinance if you have a long break-even period—the number of months to reach the point when you start saving. Refinancing to lower your monthly payment is great unless you're spending more money in the long-run.

What is the interest rate today? ›

Current mortgage and refinance interest rates
ProductInterest RateAPR
30-Year Fixed Rate6.94%6.99%
20-Year Fixed Rate6.74%6.80%
15-Year Fixed Rate6.38%6.46%
10-Year Fixed Rate6.28%6.36%
5 more rows

How much do interest rates need to drop to refinance? ›

An often-quoted rule of thumb says that if mortgage rates are lower than your current rate by 1% or more, it might be a good idea to refinance.

Is refinancing a good idea right now? ›

You can't get a lower interest rate: If your goal is to reduce your interest costs, right now isn't the best time to refinance. You're likely to end up with a higher rate, plus you'll need to cover closing costs on your new mortgage.

How long should you keep a house before refinancing? ›

While mortgages can be refinanced immediately in certain cases, you typically must wait at least six months before seeking a cash-out refinance on your home, and refinancing some mortgages requires waiting as long as two years.

Will interest rates go down in 2024? ›

Rates could continue to decrease if inflation cools, but don't expect a huge drop this year. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forecast, mortgage rates may fall to 6.5% by the end of 2024.

Will refinance rates go down? ›

Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024

As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down further. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022.

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